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| 內容簡介： |
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地铁车辆和供电系统是城市轨道交通的重要组成部分，包括车门系统、牵引系统、制动系统、轮对、高压断路器等关键系统和设备及车辆主要备品备件，这些系统和设备的健康状态不仅关系轨道交通系统的安全，还对提高城市轨道交通车辆运营的安全性和可靠性及乘客的舒适性体验有重要作用。本书介绍了地铁车辆与供电系统维修策略优化及预测技术方面的一些最新研究成果，重点介绍了车门系统、牵引系统、制动系统、轮对、高压断路器的可靠性分析、可靠性建模和维修策略优化方法和技术，还对城市轨道车辆轴承部件剩余寿命预测及备品备件的需求预测技术进行了概述。
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| 關於作者： |
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魏秀琨，北京交通大学教授，在系统建模、控制理论、故障诊断、人工智能应用等领域累计发表100多篇论文，其中SCI论文20余篇，EI/ISTP检索论文90多篇篇；发表的论文被国内外学者累计引用900多次。出版故障诊断、轨道安全状态检测和列车故障诊断方面的专著3部，编写教材1部，申请发明专利30多项，软件著作权10多项。
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| 目錄：
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第1 章 绪论 ··········································································.001
1.1 轨道交通维修策略优化和预测现状 ···································.002
1.1.1 维修的发展现状 ···················································.002
1.1.2 预测性维修的优化目标 ··········································.009
1.1.3 车辆维修现状 ······················································.014
1.1.4 剩余寿命预测发展现状 ··········································.017
1.1.5 备品备件需求预测概述 ··········································.022
1.2 本书的主要内容 ····························································.028
参考文献 ···········································································.029
第2 章 车门系统可靠性分析与维修策略优化 ································.037
2.1 离散时间马尔可夫过程 ···················································.037
2.2 通用生成函数法 ····························································.040
2.2.1 通用生成函数法的基本原理 ····································.040
2.2.2 复杂系统的通用生成函数技术 ·································.041
2.3 可靠性模型及维修周期优化 ·············································.045
2.3.1 通用生成函数法可靠性指标 ····································.045
2.3.2 系统可靠性建模概述 ·············································.046
2.3.3 维修周期优化模型 ················································.047
2.4 车门系统可靠性建模与维修策略优化 ································.048
2.4.1 车门系统可靠性建模 ·············································.048
2.4.2 车门系统的可靠性指标计算 ····································.055
2.4.3 车门系统维修策略优化 ··········································.056
2.5 本章小节 ·····································································.058
参考文献 ···········································································.058
第3 章 基于Phase-type（PH）分布的系统可靠性分析 ··················.060
3.1 PH 分布的基本概念 ······················································.060
3.1.1 PH 分布的定义 ····················································.060
3.1.2 PH 分布的性质 ····················································.062
3.1.3 PH 分布的可靠性指标 ···········································.064
3.2 基于PH 分布的串并联系统可靠性分析 ······························.065
3.2.1 串联系统 ····························································.065
3.2.2 并联系统 ····························································.067
3.3 牵引系统案例分析 ························································.071
3.3.1 系统描述 ····························································.071
3.3.2 模型分析与建立 ···················································.072
3.3.3 系统可靠性指标的计算 ··········································.074
3.4 制动系统案例分析 ························································.075
3.4.1 系统描述 ····························································.075
3.4.2 模型分析与建立 ···················································.077
3.4.3 系统可靠性指标的计算 ··········································.080
3.4.4 可靠性与维修策略对比分析 ····································.081
3.5 车门系统案例分析 ························································.082
3.5.1 系统描述 ····························································.082
3.5.2 模型分析与建立 ···················································.083
3.5.3 系统可靠性指标的计算 ··········································.086
3.5.4 可靠性与维修策略对比分析 ····································.087
3.6 本章小结 ····································································.088
参考文献 ···········································································.088
第4 章 基于冲击理论的维修策略优化 ··········································.090
4.1 冲击理论概述 ······························································.090
4.1.1 故障机理分析 ······················································.090
4.1.2 基于Poisson 冲击流的累积损伤模型 ·························.093
4.2 基于冲击理论的组合维修概率模型 ···································.095
4.2.1 轮对磨耗及维修效果分析 ·······································.095
4.2.2 维修策略描述 ······················································.097
4.2.3 组合维修概率模型 ················································.099
4.3 故障风险及组合策略优化模型 ··········································.108
4.3.1 轮缘厚度超限故障风险 ··········································.108
4.3.2 组合维修策略优化模型 ··········································.110
4.4 案例分析 ·····································································.111
4.5 本章小结 ·····································································.118
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