２０２０ 年的新冠肺炎疫情给中国消费带来严重冲击。 在这个背景下， 未来５~１０ 年中国消费的增长趋势如何? 消费结构将发生哪些重要变化? 消费在构建双循环新发展格局中扮演何种角色? 全面促进消费面临着哪些结构性矛盾和改革任务? 对此， 结合以往的研究， 适应新发展阶段的需求，我院以?中国消费? 为主题形成２０２０—２０２１ 年度改革研究报告， 对上述问题做出研究分析并提出相关的政策性建议。The COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 produced a severe impact on consumption in China. In this context， what will be the growth trend of consumption in China in the coming 5 to 10 years? What important changes will take place in the consumption structure? What role will consumption play in building a new development paradigm of dual circulation? What structural contradictions and reform tasks do we face in comprehensively promoting consumption? In this regard， combined with previous researches and to meet the needs of the new development phase， CIRD completed the reform research report of 2020-2021 with China Consumption as the theme to made research and analysis on the above issues and put forward relevant policy-oriented suggestions.
關於作者：
迟福林，男，转轨经济理论与政策研究权威；享受国务院特殊津贴专家，海南省首批有突出贡献专家；中国（海南）改革发展研究院院长，中国经济体制改革研究会副会长、中国行政体制改革研究会副会长；国家行政学院、中国井冈山干部学院、北京大学、东北大学等高校特聘教授。 Chi Fulin， is a research fellow， supervisor of Ph.D. and member of the 11th and 12th National Committee of the Chinese Peoples Political Consultative Conference， is the president of China Institute for Reform and Development. He also works as vice president of China Society of Economic Reform， and vice president of China Society of Administrative Reform. He is a member of the Expert Committee for the 13th Five-Year Plan of China. In addition， he is a distinguished professor of a number of universities and colleges， including Chinese Academy of Governance， China Executive Leadership Academy Jinggangshan， Peking University， Zhejiang University and Northeastern University.
目錄：
Foreword / 1Overview China in the New Era of Consumption / 5I. Main Trend in the New Era of Consumption / 6II. Consumption Upgrading Promoting High-Quality Development / 9III. Promote Structural Reform in the Context of Consumption-Oriented Transformation / 12Chapter 1 The World’s Largest Consumer Market / 21Section 1 Enter the New Era of Consumption / 22I. Continual Expansion of Consumption Scale / 22II. Overall Rapid Growth of New Forms of Consumption / 31III. Formation of New Consumer Groups / 37IV. Popularization of New Consumption Concepts / 40V. Impetus for Entering the New Era of Consumption / 44Section 2 Consumption under the Impact of Pandemic / 48I. 2020: Consumption Was Seriously Impacted by the Pandemic / 48II. Pandemic Has not Changed the Long-Term Growth Trend of Consumption / 52Section 3 14th Five-Year Plan: Consumption Will Maintain Fairly Rapid Growth / 55I. Continual Growth of Consumer Market / 55II. Consumption Standard Keeps on Rising / 58III. China Will Become the World’s Largest Consumer Market / 60Chapter 2 Cities Drive Consumption / 69Section 1 Integration of Urbanization with Consumption Upgrading / 70I. Consumption Upgrading and Urbanization / 70II. Urbanization Drives Consumption Upgrading / 72III. Consumption Function and Consumption Bearing Capacity Influence the Competitiveness of Cities / 76IV. Cities in China Strive to Foster New Forms of Consumption / 80Section 2 Growth Space for Consumption in Urbanization / 84I. Urbanization Is Still in Accelerated Development / 84II. Urbanization Brings Huge Consumption and Investment Demands / 87III. Urbanization Produces Huge Scale Effect of Public Consumption / 91IV. Continuous Release of Consumption Demands Triggered by Urbanization / 94Section 3 Big Cities and Metropolitan Areas Become Consumption Centers / 96I. New Trend of Population Gathering in Central Cities and City Clusters / 97II. Metropolitan Areas Become a Windvane Leading Consumption Upgrading / 100III. Regional Integration Pushes the Development of Regional Consumption Center Cities / 104Section 4 International Influence of Urbanization and Consumption Upgrading / 107I. An Emerging Power in Pursuit of International Quality for Commodities and Services / 107II. Rising of International Consumption Center Cities / 111III. Important Influence on Regional Economy and World Economy / 114Chapter 3 Promote Rural Consumption in All Aspects / 122Section 1 Rural Area Is a Big Consumer Market / 123I. A Massive Rural Population in China / 123II. Income Level of Rural Residents Keeps on Rising / 126III. Rural Area Is a Growing Big Consumer Market / 132Section 2 Silent Changes in Rural Consumption / 136I. Upgrading of Durable Consumer Goods for Rural Residents / 136II. Rapid Growing of Public Consumption Demands of Rural Residents / 140III. Fairly Rapid Growth of New Types of Consumption of Rural Residents / 143Section 3 Promote New Types of Rural Consumption in All Aspects / 148I. Provide Important Conditions for the Overall Development of New Types of Rural Consumption by Sending Elements to Rural Areas / 148II. Promote New Types of Rural Consumption with Integrated Development of Industries / 152III. Promote the Development of Green Agriculture with Green Consumption / 155IV. Push the Development of Intelligent Agriculture with Digital Consumption / 160Chapter 4 Consumption Gives Rise to Industrial Transformation / 166Section 1 Benign Interaction of Consumption Structure Upgrading with Industrial Structure Transformation / 167I. Upgrading of Industrial Structure Is Accompanied by Evolution of Consumption Structure / 167II. The New Trend of Service-Oriented Consumption Gives Rise to New Forms in the Development of Service Industry / 171III. 2025: Service Industry Will Account for about 60% / 173Section 2 Consumption Structure Upgrading Will Promote Scientific and Technological Transformation / 177I. The Upgrading of Consumption Structure Provides an Application Market for Technological Transformation / 177II. Modern Information Technology Accelerates Digital Transformation of Industries / 183III. Reshape the Core Competitiveness of Industries / 188IV. Seize the First Change of the New Round of Global Industrial Revolution with Intelligent Manufacturing / 192Section 3 Green Consumption Promotes the Development of Green Industries / 195I. Green Consumption Promotes the Green Transformation of Traditional Industries / 196II. Speed up the Process of New Energy Revolution / 200III. Green Consumption Pushes China to Achieve Peak Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Carbon Neutrality / 205Chapter 5 China’s Consumption: Significantly Positive to the World’s Economic Growth / 212Section 1 The World’s Largest Services Market and Trader of Services / 213I. China Will Become the World’s Largest Services Market / 213II. Development Trend of the Service Trade / 216III. High-Quality Development of the Service Trade / 222IV. 2035: China Will Become the World’s Largest Trader in Services / 228Section 2 Hainan Free Trade Port: Create the World’s Largest Duty-Free Shopping Base / 231I. Creating the World’s Largest Duty-Free Shopping Base as an Important Goal / 231II. China International Consumer Products Expo: A New Platform for the World to Share the Consumption by 1.4 Billion People in China / 234III. Improving the Duty-Free Shopping Service System Through the China International Consumer Products Expo / 238Section 3 Institutional Opening-Up in the Context of Consumption-Oriented Transformation / 241I. Push Forward High-Level Institutional Opening-Up Process / 241II. Institutional Opening-Up Forced by the Consumption-Oriented Transformation / 246III. Push Forward Major Tasks of Consumption-Oriented Transformation with Institutional Opening-Up / 249IV. Push Forward the In-Depth Integration of China Market with World Market with Institutional Opening-Up / 254
內容試閱：
The key to accelerating the fostering of a double development dynamic， with the domestic economy and international engagement reinforcing each other， and the former as the mainstay is to expand the domestic demand and upgrade consumption by 1.4 billion people.Since 2006， China Institute for Reform and Development (CIRD) has been paying attention to and continuously studying issues concerning consumption in China’s economic transformation. For example， in September 2006， in Accelerating the Establishment of a Socialist Public Service System (18 Suggestions) submitted by CIRD to relevant departments of the central government， it was stated that China is in the transition from a subsistence-based society to a development-oriented society; in China Human Development Report 2007-2008: Basic Public Services for 1.3 Billion People prepared by CIRD as entrusted by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) in 2007， it was stated that the consumption demand of urban and rural residents has started to transform from mainly for subsistence to that mainly for development and upgrade from consumption mainly of materials to that mainly of services; in 2009， in a special academic lecture at the Northeast University， I put forth the basic judgment that China is changing from a big country of production to a big country of consumption; and in 2010， in the research report Accelerating the Historical Transformation of from Production-Oriented Growth to Consumption-Oriented Growth submitted to relevant ministries and commissions of the central government， it demanded to take the expansion of consumption demand as a major task in the change of economic development pattern. In conjunction with the previous researches and proposals， in 2012， the annual report on reform with the theme Consumption-Oriented: the Grand Strategy of China’s Economic Transformation was issued， with fairly systematic research on consumption; in 2014， the research group of CIRD completed the key research subject of the National Social Science Foundation Promoting Consumption-Led Economic Transformation: A Study on the Path of Transformation of China’s Economic Growth Pattern; in 2018， CIRD submitted to relevant ministries and commissions of the state Releasing the Huge Growth Potential of Domestic Demand: Suggestions on Speeding up the Improvement of the Socialist Market Economy System (24 Suggestions); also in 2018， the research report Service-Oriented Consumption of Urban and Rural Residents in China: Current Situation and Trend was published; and in June， I explained “How to Usher in the New Era of Consumption” in the China Economic Forum of CCTV.
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