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| 內容簡介： |
Since2014,China,drawingupontheexperienceandpracticesofcountrieswithmaturemarketeconomytoguidemarketexpectation,hasconvenedtheChinaAgriculturalOutlookConferenceandreleasedtheChinaAgriculturalOutlookReportforthreeconsecutiveyears;inparticular,theChinaAgriculturalOutlook2015-2024releasedinthenameoftheMarketEarlyWarningExpertCommittee,MinistryofAgriculturein2015hasprovidedimportantreferencefordomesticmarketplayersandrelevantsectorsregardingadjustingtheexpectationofagriculturalmarket.Theyear2016markstheopeningofthe13thFive-YearPlanFYPperiodandisalsothekeystageforsupply-sidestructuralreformsinagriculture.ThefurtherimprovementofthesystemofChinaagriculturaloutlookandthereleaseoftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook2016-2025isanimportantmeasuretoimplementarangeofimportantdevelopmentstrategiesandarrangements,includingSeveralOpinionsoftheCentralCommitteeofCPCandtheStateCouncilonPromotingtheReformofPriceMechanism,SeveralOpinionsoftheCPCCentralCommitteeandtheStateCouncilontheImplementationofNewConceptsontheDevelopmentandtheAccelerationoftheAgriculturalModernizationfortheRealizationofModerateProsperityinAllRespects,GuidanceoftheStateCouncilonAdvancingtheInternetPlusInitiativeandCircularoftheStateCouncilonPrintingandIssuingtheActionOutlineforPromotingBigDataDevelopment,andisofcrucialimportancetoreviewthe12thFYPperiodandplanforagriculturaldevelopmentinthe13thFYPperiod.ThebasicconclusionoftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook2016-2025isthebaselineprojectionmadebyexpertsandrelevantsectors,adoptingtheChinaAgriculturalMonitoringandEarly-warningSystemCAMES,developedbytheAgriculturalMonitoringandEarly-warningTeamofAgriculturalInformationInsituteofCAAS,onthebasisoftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook2015-2024,takingintoconsiderationdevelopmentsofmarket,policy,climateandmacroeconomicsofthepreviousyear,andbasedonspecificassumptionsofmacroeconomics,agriculturalpolicies,climateconditions,innovationofscienceandtechnology,resourceendowmentandchangesofinternationalmarkets.BaselinedatamainlycomesfromstatisticsreleasedbyChinastatisticsdepartmentsandtheagriculturalmarketmonitoringdatareleasedbyagriculturaldepartments,andalsoincludesfieldinvestigationdataaccumulatedbyrelevantresearchinstitutions.TheChinaAgriculturalOutlook2016-2025,inparticular,reviewedthesituationofagriculturalmarketinChinaduringthe12thFYPperiod,madeprojectionsonthefeaturesandtrendoftheoperationofChina''sagriculturalmarketduringthe13thFYPperiod,thuswillprovideimportantreferenceforthedevelopmentandimplementationofthenewFYP.TheMarketEarlyWarningExpertCommitteeofMOAreviewedandapprovedthebasicconclusionoftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook2016-2025.TheCommitteeiscomposedofexpertsandacademiciansfromthefollowingentities：DepartmentofAgriculturalEconomy,NDRC,DepartmentofEconomyandTrade,NDRC,AcademyofMacroeconomicResearch,NDRC,CirculationIndustryPromotionCenter,MOFCOM,ChinaNationalGrainandOilsInformationCenter,RenminUniversityofChina,ChineseAcademyofSocialSciencesCASS,UniversityofInternationalBusinessandEconomics,ShanghaiJiaoTongUniversity,DepartmentofSectoralPolicyandLaw,MOA,DepartmentofMarketandEconomicInformation,MOA,DepartmentofDevelopmentandPlanning,MOA,DepartmentofCropProduction,MOA,DepartmentofAnimalProduction,MOA,FisheriesBureau,MOA,RuralEconomyResearchCenter,MOA,InformationCenter,MOA,AgriculturalTradePromotionCenter,MOA,InstituteofAgriculturalEconomicsandDevelopment,CAAS,andAgricultureInformationInstitute,CAAS.ExpertsofthesystemofindustrialtechnologiesofmodernagriculturehavemadeimportantcontributionstotheOutlookReportintermsoftheprovisionofdataandthediscussionandrevisionofOutlookconclusions.EverychapteroftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook2016-2025hasbeenbasedonyearsofstudyofproductanalystsandthedistillationoftheirhardworkandwisdom.Tobespecific,Chapter1OverviewisauthoredbyLiGanqiong;Chapter2Cerealsiswrittenbyriceanalysts,PengChao,ZhangHuanandGaoQiang,wheatanalystCaoHuiandcornanalystsXuWeipingandXiYinsheng;Chapter3OilseedsandOilseedProductsiswrittenbysoybeananalystsYinRuifengandXuXuegao,oilseedanalystsZhangWenliandLiSonglin;Chapter4CottonisauthoredbycottonanalystsZhaiXuelingandLiXiang;Chapter5SugariseditedbysugaranalystsXuXue,MaKaiandMaGuangxia;Chapter6VegetablesisauthoredbyvegetableanalystsLiHuishang,KongFantaoandWangShengwei;Chapter7FruitsiseditedbyfruitanalystsWuJieandZhaoJunye;Chapter8MeatisauthoredbyporkanalystsZhuZengyongandZhangXuebiao,poultryanalystsZhangLiandZhuHaiboandbeefandmuttonanalystsSiZhizhiandQuChunhong;Chapter9PoultryEggsiswrittenbypoultryegganalystsLiZhemin,LiGanqiongandZhangChao;Chapter10DairyiseditedbydairyanalystsWangDongjieandDongXiaoxia;Chapter11AquaticProductsisauthoredbyaquaticproductanalystsShenChen,LiuJingjingandZhangJingyi;andChapter12FeediswrittenbyfeedanalystsZhangQiaoandTaoSha.AllstaffoftheAgricultureInformationInstitute,CAAS,ledbyDirectorSunTanhasprovidedstrongguaranteeforthehigh-qualityperformanceandsmoothcompletionofOutlookactivitiesfor2016.ChinaAgriculturalMonitoringandEarly-warningInnovationTeam,ledbyResearcherXuShiweiasChiefScientist,hasprovidedbasicdatasystemandCAMESmodelsimulationandpredicationtechnology.Teammembers,includingLiGanqiong,PanYuehong,ZhangYongen,ZhangYumei,WuJianzhai,WangShengwei,WangDongjie,ChenWei,ZhuangJiayu,LiuJiajia,ZhangChao,RenYufeng,LiYanniandWangYu,havedonetremendousconcreteanddetailedworksuchasdatacalculation,reportrevisionandChinese-Englishtranslation.TheChinaAgriculturalScienceandTechnologyPresshasmadeeffortsintype-settingandprinting.ThereleaseoftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook2016-2025,aftertheChinaAgriculturalOutlook2015-2024,bytheMarketEarlyWarningExpertCommittee,MOA,signifiesthefledglingofagriculturaloutlookactivitiesinChinaandthesteadyandsoliddevelopmentofthesystemofglobalagriculturalsurveyandanalysisinChina.Sincemarketsituationanalysisshouldnotonlybebasedonthelatestinformationofagricultureandrelatedsectors,andmarketdemandandsupplyissusceptibletouncertaintiesofclimate,politicsandpolicy,theChinaAgriculturalOutlook2016-2025couldmakingmistakesinitspredications.Wewillgraduallyexploretheestablishmentofmechanismfortheanalysisandassessmentofpredicationdeviationssoastoprovidemoreaccurateinformationforusers.Wesincerelyinvitedomesticandforeigncolleaguestoprovidevaluableopinionsforimprovingourfuturestudies.
Since2014,China,drawingupontheexperienceandpracticesofcountrieswithmaturemarketeconomytoguidemarketexpectation,hasconvenedtheChinaAgriculturalOutlookConferenceandreleasedtheChinaAgriculturalOutlookReportforthreeconsecutiveyears;inparticular,theChinaAgriculturalOutlook2015-2024releasedinthenameoftheMarketEarlyWarningExpertCommittee,MinistryofAgriculturein2015hasprovidedimportantreferencefordomesticmarketplayersandrelevantsectorsregardingadjustingtheexpectationofagriculturalmarket.Theyear2016markstheopeningofthe13thFive-YearPlanFYPperiodandisalsothekeystageforsupply-sidestructuralreformsinagriculture.ThefurtherimprovementofthesystemofChinaagriculturaloutlookandthereleaseoftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook2016-2025isanimportantmeasuretoimplementarangeofimportantdevelopmentstrategiesandarrangements,includingSeveralOpinionsoftheCentralCommitteeofCPCandtheStateCouncilonPromotingtheReformofPriceMechanism,SeveralOpinionsoftheCPCCentralCommitteeandtheStateCouncilontheImplementationofNewConceptsontheDevelopmentandtheAccelerationoftheAgriculturalModernizationfortheRealizationofModerateProsperityinAllRespects,GuidanceoftheStateCouncilonAdvancingtheInternetPlusInitiativeandCircularoftheStateCouncilonPrintingandIssuingtheActionOutlineforPromotingBigDataDevelopment,andisofcrucialimportancetoreviewthe12thFYPperiodandplanforagriculturaldevelopmentinthe13thFYPperiod.ThebasicconclusionoftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook2016-2025isthebaselineprojectionmadebyexpertsandrelevantsectors,adoptingtheChinaAgriculturalMonitoringandEarly-warningSystemCAMES,developedbytheAgriculturalMonitoringandEarly-warningTeamofAgriculturalInformationInsituteofCAAS,onthebasisoftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook2015-2024,takingintoconsiderationdevelopmentsofmarket,policy,climateandmacroeconomicsofthepreviousyear,andbasedonspecificassumptionsofmacroeconomics,agriculturalpolicies,climateconditions,innovationofscienceandtechnology,resourceendowmentandchangesofinternationalmarkets.BaselinedatamainlycomesfromstatisticsreleasedbyChinastatisticsdepartmentsandtheagriculturalmarketmonitoringdatareleasedbyagriculturaldepartments,andalsoincludesfieldinvestigationdataaccumulatedbyrelevantresearchinstitutions.TheChinaAgriculturalOutlook2016-2025,inparticular,reviewedthesituationofagriculturalmarketinChinaduringthe12thFYPperiod,madeprojectionsonthefeaturesandtrendoftheoperationofChina''sagriculturalmarketduringthe13thFYPperiod,thuswillprovideimportantreferenceforthedevelopmentandimplementationofthenewFYP.TheMarketEarlyWarningExpertCommitteeofMOAreviewedandapprovedthebasicconclusionoftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook2016-2025.TheCommitteeiscomposedofexpertsandacademiciansfromthefollowingentities：DepartmentofAgriculturalEconomy,NDRC,DepartmentofEconomyandTrade,NDRC,AcademyofMacroeconomicResearch,NDRC,CirculationIndustryPromotionCenter,MOFCOM,ChinaNationalGrainandOilsInformationCenter,RenminUniversityofChina,ChineseAcademyofSocialSciencesCASS,UniversityofInternationalBusinessandEconomics,ShanghaiJiaoTongUniversity,DepartmentofSectoralPolicyandLaw,MOA,DepartmentofMarketandEconomicInformation,MOA,DepartmentofDevelopmentandPlanning,MOA,DepartmentofCropProduction,MOA,DepartmentofAnimalProduction,MOA,FisheriesBureau,MOA,RuralEconomyResearchCenter,MOA,InformationCenter,MOA,AgriculturalTradePromotionCenter,MOA,InstituteofAgriculturalEconomicsandDevelopment,CAAS,andAgricultureInformationInstitute,CAAS.ExpertsofthesystemofindustrialtechnologiesofmodernagriculturehavemadeimportantcontributionstotheOutlookReportintermsoftheprovisionofdataandthediscussionandrevisionofOutlookconclusions.EverychapteroftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook2016-2025hasbeenbasedonyearsofstudyofproductanalystsandthedistillationoftheirhardworkandwisdom.Tobespecific,Chapter1OverviewisauthoredbyLiGanqiong;Chapter2Cerealsiswrittenbyriceanalysts,PengChao,ZhangHuanandGaoQiang,wheatanalystCaoHuiandcornanalystsXuWeipingandXiYinsheng;Chapter3OilseedsandOilseedProductsiswrittenbysoybeananalystsYinRuifengandXuXuegao,oilseedanalystsZhangWenliandLiSonglin;Chapter4CottonisauthoredbycottonanalystsZhaiXuelingandLiXiang;Chapter5SugariseditedbysugaranalystsXuXue,MaKaiandMaGuangxia;Chapter6VegetablesisauthoredbyvegetableanalystsLiHuishang,KongFantaoandWangShengwei;Chapter7FruitsiseditedbyfruitanalystsWuJieandZhaoJunye;Chapter8MeatisauthoredbyporkanalystsZhuZengyongandZhangXuebiao,poultryanalystsZhangLiandZhuHaiboandbeefandmuttonanalystsSiZhizhiandQuChunhong;Chapter9PoultryEggsiswrittenbypoultryegganalystsLiZhemin,LiGanqiongandZhangChao;Chapter10DairyiseditedbydairyanalystsWangDongjieandDongXiaoxia;Chapter11AquaticProductsisauthoredbyaquaticproductanalystsShenChen,LiuJingjingandZhangJingyi;andChapter12FeediswrittenbyfeedanalystsZhangQiaoandTaoSha.AllstaffoftheAgricultureInformationInstitute,CAAS,ledbyDirectorSunTanhasprovidedstrongguaranteeforthehigh-qualityperformanceandsmoothcompletionofOutlookactivitiesfor2016.ChinaAgriculturalMonitoringandEarly-warningInnovationTeam,ledbyResearcherXuShiweiasChiefScientist,hasprovidedbasicdatasystemandCAMESmodelsimulationandpredicationtechnology.Teammembers,includingLiGanqiong,PanYuehong,ZhangYongen,ZhangYumei,WuJianzhai,WangShengwei,WangDongjie,ChenWei,ZhuangJiayu,LiuJiajia,ZhangChao,RenYufeng,LiYanniandWangYu,havedonetremendousconcreteanddetailedworksuchasdatacalculation,reportrevisionandChinese-Englishtranslation.TheChinaAgriculturalScienceandTechnologyPresshasmadeeffortsintype-settingandprinting.ThereleaseoftheChinaAgriculturalOutlook2016-2025,aftertheChinaAgriculturalOutlook2015-2024,bytheMarketEarlyWarningExpertCommittee,MOA,signifiesthefledglingofagriculturaloutlookactivitiesinChinaandthesteadyandsoliddevelopmentofthesystemofglobalagriculturalsurveyandanalysisinChina.Sincemarketsituationanalysisshouldnotonlybebasedonthelatestinformationofagricultureandrelatedsectors,andmarketdemandandsupplyissusceptibletouncertaintiesofclimate,politicsandpolicy,theChinaAgriculturalOutlook2016-2025couldmakingmistakesinitspredications.Wewillgraduallyexploretheestablishmentofmechanismfortheanalysisandassessmentofpredicationdeviationssoastoprovidemoreaccurateinformationforusers.Wesincerelyinvitedomesticandforeigncolleaguestoprovidevaluableopinionsforimprovingourfuturestudies.
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农业部市场预警专家委员会是2011年11月28日成立的，针对近年来农产品市场波动比较大的现状，为更好地应对和预警，农业部研究决定成立的。委员会的任务是密切关注国内外农产品市场运行情况，及时提出政策建议，还要从稳定农产品市场和促进农民增收出发，适时、主动回应和引导社会舆论。农业部市场预警专家委员会，首批确定了10名委员，聘期为5年。要求专家必须熟悉和掌握我国国民经济运行情况、国家宏观经济政策、农业政策及理论等，能够独立承担和完成专题研究任务。
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