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內容簡介: |
本書主要目的在評估全球及世界各分區,未來數十年大地震發生的機率。作者利用新的地震活動度回歸公式,計算全球及主要地震帶,不同規模的大地震在特定時間段的發生機率。這本書是作者五十多年來,為了減輕地震災害,致力於地球物理學及地震學的研究和教育,所積累的具體成果。作者希望讀者發現本書使用的研究方法,有助於減少災難性地震造成的傷亡及破壞。
Theprimarypurposeofthisbookistopresentquantitativeforecastingofthemid-termprobabilityoflargeearthquakesbothgloballyandovervariousregionsoftheworld. Theauthorusedthenovelseismicactivityregressionformulatocalculatetheprobabilityofanearthquake,intheglobalandmajorseismiczones,withanygivenmagnitudeatanygiventimesincethemostrecentearthquakeofthesamemagnitude.Thisbookistheauthor"s50+yearsaccumulationofachievementsinresearchingandteachinggeophysicsandseismologyformitigationofearthquakedisasters.Theauthorhopesthatthoseafterhimwillfindthemethodologyinthisbooktobehelpfulinlimitingthedeathanddestructioncausedbyearthquakesofcatastrophicmagnitude.
好評推薦:
“Thisisanexcellentsummaryofthelife-longcontributionsoftheauthorDr.Yi-BenTsai,whohasessentiallyledtheinitiationin1960sanditssubsequentdevelopmentduringtheensuinghalfCentury,oftheTaiwanEarthquakeResearchProgram,whichhasledtooneofthebestandmostproductiveseismologicalresearchenterprisesintheworld.BasedonhisTaiwanwork,inthisbookDr.Tsaifurthergivesacomprehensiveoutlineonthestatusoftheearthquakescienceandhazardsintheworldthatshouldbemostvaluableforprofessionalsaswellastheinterestedpublic.”–Ta-LiangTeng,ProfessorofGeophysicsandSeismology,UniversityofSouthernCalifornia,USA
“Dr.Yi-BenTsaihadanextensivecareerasaresearchseismologist,aneducator,academicresearchadministratorandinindustryallinearthquakecountry.Thisbookistheresultofhislaboroflove–herecruitedhiswholefamilyinthelaststageofhiswritingtocompletethemanuscript.Inthisbook,hebasedhisseismicityforecastonamodifiedwaytoestimateGutenberg-Richterrelationwithmeasureofuncertaintyontheannualrateandappliedthecalculationtoallmajorseismicregionsoftheworld.Itisausefulreferenceforreadersconcernedwiththeseismicityoftheearth.”–FrancisT.Wu,ProfessorofGeophysics,StateUniversityofNewYorkatBinghamton,USA
“Thisisawonderfulbookforthosewhoareinterestedinearthquakesandtheglobaltectonics.
Inadditiontotheglobalseismicity,generalseismotectonicsareintroducedinmanyregionswherethenextbigearthquakesareexpected.”–Sun-LinChung,DistinguishedResearchFellowandDirector,InstituteofEarthSciences,AcademiaSinica,Taiwan
“Theexcellentbookintegratesglobalseismicitydata,platetectonicsandquantitativeforecastingoftheprobabilityoflargeearthquakesbothgloballyandovervariousregionsoftheworld.Itisamust-readforstudents,academics,andprofessionalsinseismicgeosciences.”–Ching-HuaLo,NTUChairProfessorofGeosciencesandExecutiveVicePresident,NationalTaiwan
“Prof.TsaiisapioneerforEarthSciencesstudiesinTaiwan.HisvisioninearthquakescienceandengineeringbroughtsignificantimpacttothesocietyofTaiwanforearthquakehazardmitigation.Thisbookcompiledtheglobalseismicitytobringintheattentionofhighseismichazardregion,andprovidefundamentalmessageforearthquakescienceandengineering.”–Kuo-FongMa,ProfessorandChairofEarthquake-Disaster&RiskManagementE-DREaMCenter,NationalCentralUniversity,Taiwan
“Agreatbookforanexcellentintroductionofseismologyaswellasearthquakeengineering.Itprovidesalotofpracticalexperiencestofacethenextbigearthquakes.”–Yih-MinWu,ProfessorofDepartmentofGeosciences,NationalTaiwanUniversity,Taiwan
“ProfessorYi-BenTsaiwrotethisbookbasedonhisoutstandingresearchpresentingacompleteanalysisofglobalearthquakestatistics.ProfessorTsaidevotedhislifetoearthquakeobservationandstudy.AsaleaderinthedevelopmentofearthscienceandtechnologyinTaiwan,heisarolemodelforglobalearthscienceresearchers.ThisbookisdefinitelyworthrecommendingtostudentsandteachersinuniversitiesandresearchinstitutesandalsoservestocommemorateprofessorYi-BenTsai,thefatherofTaiwanseismology.”–Wen-YenChang,DistinguishedProfessorandDean,CollegeofEnvironmentalStudies,NationalDongHwaUniversity,Taiwan
“Thisisagreatcontributiontoearthquakestudies,withaninnovativetheorybasedonfundamentalseismologicalknowledge.AsProfessorTsaistated,hopefullythemethodologyinthisbookcanbehelpfulinlimitingthedeathanddestructioncausedbyearthquakes.Thedatacanbesignificantforpolicymakersoranyonemakingimportantdecisionsonearthquakepreparedness.”–Yi-HengLi,SeniorResearcherofGreenEnergyandEnvironmentResearchLaboratory,IndustrialTechnologyResearchInstitute,Taiwan
“Thisbookisanexcellentreferencebookforthepatternsofglobalseismicityandtheevaluationfortheprobabilitiesoflargeearthquakesintheworld.Dr.Tsaidevotedhimselftothestudyoftheseismichazardandthisbookshowsthepassionofhiswork.ForthescientificperspectiveandalsoinmemoryofDr.Tsai,thisbookisworthhaving.”–HaoKuo-Chen,AssociateProfessorofDepartmentofEarthSciences,NationalCentralUniversity,Taiwan
“Anexcellentmanifestofthelifelongworkandfocusofadevotedseismologistonapressingtopicfacingoursocietytodayandinthefuture.Thetheoreticderivationandexplanationareclear;thedatacompilationandanalysisarepainstakinglycomprehensiveanddetailed.”–Chin-WuChen,AssistantProfessorofInstituteofOceanography,NationalTaiwanUniversity,Taiwan
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關於作者: |
ProfessorYi-BenTsai
March23,1940-January31,2018
ProfessorTsaiwasborninapoorfarmingfamilyofninechildreninTaiwan.
Withanunwaveringbeliefintheimportanceofeducation,ProfessorTsaiearnedadegreeinElectricalEngineeringfromNationalTaiwanUniversityin1962.
Afterlosingtwosistersduetoflashfloodscausedbyatyphoonin1959,ProfessorTsaiturnedhiseffortstomitigatingtheeffectsofnaturaldisasters.
In1965,ProfessorTsaigraduatedfromNationalCentralUniversityinTaiwanwithaMaster’sDegreeinGeophysics.ProfessorTsaithenmovedtotheUnitedStatestopursueadoctorateinGeophysicsattheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyMIT.HegraduatedfromMITin1969withaPhDinGeophysics,specializinginSeismology.
In1973,ProfessorTsaimovedbacktoTaiwanwithhisyoungfamilyandstartedhisearthquakestudyjourney.
Formorethan50years,ProfessorTsaidevotedhislifetothestudyandteachingofGeophysicsandSeismologyforthepurposeofplanningfor,andmitigatingtheeffectsof,earthquakes.Hefocusedinparticularontheareasofseismictelemetrynetwork,strongmotionobservationnetworks,earthquakeearlywarningsystems,andprecursorobservationswhichcanimprovepredictionabilityandultimatelyminimizelossoflife.
ProfessorTsaiwasawardedmanyhonorsinTaiwan,including:DistinguishedAlumnifromNationalCentralUniversity,OutstandingScholarAwardfromFoundationfortheAdvancementofOutstandingScholarship,OutstandingScienceandTechnologyAward,andtheTenOutstandingYoungMenAward.Hewasalsoknownasthe“SonofEarthquakes”inTaiwanduetohiscontributionstoearthquakeresearchandpredictioninTaiwan.ProfessorTsaiwasthefoundingdirectoroftheInstituteofEarthSciences,AcademiaSinicainTaiwanandthefoundingdeanoftheCollegeofEarthSciences,NationalCentralUniversity.Hehasnurturedcountlesstalentedseismologistswiththehopethattheycarryhislegacyforward.
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目錄:
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Acknowledgements
Chapter1Introduction
1.1PurposeofthisBook
1.2OutlineofthisBook
Chapter2EarthquakesandGlobalPlateTectonics
2.1EarthquakeEpicentersintheWorld
2.2HypocenterDepthsofEarthquakesintheWorld
2.3GlobalPlateTectonicTheory
Chapter3DataUsed
3.1DataAvailability
3.2Selectiveusesofthedatainthreeperiods
Chapter4MethodforForecastingProbabilitiesofLargeEarthquakes
4.1Themethodology
4.2Step1:Calculatingthelogarithmicmeanannualseismicityratesandcorrespondingstandarddeviationsforaseriesofmagnitudes
4.3Step2:ObtainingthealternativeGutenberg-RichterG-Rrelation
4.4Step3:Obtainingtherelationfortherecurrenceinterval,T,asafunctionofM
4.5Step4:CalculatingthecumulativeprobabilityofearthquakesasafunctionofT,CPFT
4.6Step5:Forecastingtheprobabilitiesoflargeearthquakes
Chapter5GlobalEarthquakesinDifferentDepthRanges
5.1Distributionofglobalearthquakesinsixdepthranges
5.2Globalearthquakesinthedepthrangeof0-33km
5.3Globalearthquakesinthedepthrangeof33-70km
5.4Globalearthquakesinthedepthrangeof70-150km
5.5Globalearthquakesinthedepthrangeof150-300km
5.6Globalearthquakesinthedepthrangeof300-500km
5.7Globalearthquakesinthedepthrangeof500-800km
Chapter6EasternCircum-PacificSeismicBelt
6.1EasternCircum-PacificSeismicBelt
6.2EasternAleutianArc-CentralAlaska
6.3SoutheasternAlaskaandBritishColumbia
6.4CascadiaRegion
6.5NorthernCalifornia
6.6SouthernCalifornia
6.7GulfofCalifornia
6.8SouthwestCoastofMexico
6.9CentralAmerica
6.10CaribbeanRegion
6.11Colombia-Ecuador-Peru
6.12ChileandNorthernArgentina
Chapter7WesternCircum-PacificSeismicBelt
7.1WesternCircum-PacificSeismicBelt
7.2WesternAleutianIslands
7.3Kamchatka-KurilIslands-Hokkaido
7.4JapaneseTohokuRegion
7.5JapaneseNankaiRegion
7.6MarianaIslands
7.7RyukyuIslands
7.8TaiwanRegion
7.9SouthernTaiwan-LuzonIslandRegion
7.10ThePhilippineIslands
7.11Celebes-Moluccas-TimorIslandsRegion
7.12PapuaNewGuinea-SolomonIslands148
7.13Vanuatu-NewCaledoniaIslands152
7.14Tonga-Kermadec-NewZealandNorthIsland
7.15NewZealand
Chapter8Java-Sumatra,Andaman-NicobarIslandsandEurasianContinent
8.1EurasianContinent
8.2Java-SumatraIslands
8.3Andaman-NicobarIslands
8.4Myanmar-SoutheastAsia
8.5Himalaya-EasternAsia
8.6Pakistan-Afghanistan-CentralAsia-Iran-Caucasus
8.7Turkey-Greece-Romania
8.8Alps-Italy-Slovenia-Bosnia
8.9WesternEurope-NorthAfrica
8.10NorthernChina-LakeBaikal
Chapter9:Canada-ConterminousUnitedStates
9.1Canada
9.2ConterminousUnitedStates
9.3U.S.Central-EasternRegion
9.4U.S.IntermountainRegion
9.5U.S.WesternRegion
Chapter10:Mid-OceanicRidges-TransformFaults
10.1ArcticOcean
10.2NorthernAtlanticOcean
10.3SouthernAtlanticOcean
10.4SouthernIndianOcean
10.5NorthernIndianOcean
10.6EastAfrica
10.7SouthernPacificOcean
10.8HawaiiIslands
10.9GlobalMid-OceanicRidges
References
ProfessorYi-BenTsai
SpecialThanks
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